Featuring short-term forecasts of the weekly incidence trend of the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). An updated forecast of the epidemic will be published weekly.
Week of September 2 to September 30, 2019
Based on WHO Situation Report #59 (September 15, 2019). The vertical dashed line indicates the start of the forecast as September 2 to September 30, 2019.
Based on WHO Situation Report #58 (September 8, 2019). The vertical dashed line indicates the start of the forecast as August 26 to September 23, 2019.
Based on WHO Situation Report #57 (September 1, 2019). The vertical dashed line indicates the start of the forecast as August 19 to September 16, 2019.
Based on WHO Situation Report #56 (August 25, 2019). The vertical dashed line indicates the start of the forecast as August 12 to September 9, 2019.
Based on WHO Situation Report #55 (August 18, 2019). The vertical dashed line indicates the start of the forecast as August 5 to September 2, 2019.
Based on WHO Situation Report #54 (August 11, 2019). The vertical dashed line indicates the start of the forecast as July 29 to August 26, 2019.
Based on WHO Situation Report #52 (August 4, 2019). The vertical dashed line indicates the start of the forecast as July 22 to August 12, 2019.
Featured Researchers
Dr. Gerardo Chowell
Dr. Gerardo Chowell is professor of mathematical epidemiology in the concentration of Epidemiology & Biostatistics in the School of Public Health at Georgia State University. He also holds an external affiliation as a Senior Research Fellow at the Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies at the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health.
Before joining Georgia State, Dr. Chowell was an associate professor in the School of Human Evolution and Social Change at Arizona State University.
Dr. Chowell is a member of the Editorial Boards of BMC Medicine, BMC Infectious Diseases, Epidemics, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Infectious Disease Modeling, Scientific Reports, and PLOS One.
Learn more about Dr. Gerardo Chowell
Contact: gchowell@gsu.edu
Dr. James “Mac” Hyman
Dr. James “Mac” Hyman is the Evelyn and John G. Phillips Distinguished Professor in Mathematics at Tulane University.
His research includes building a solid mathematical foundation for difference approximations to partial differential equations and using mathematical models to better understand and predict the spread of epidemics, and the use of mathematical modeling to better understand the role of age, risk behavior, and health on the spread of infectious disease.
Learn more about Dr. James “Mac” Hyman
Contact: mhyman@tulane.edu
Amna Tariq
Amna Tariq is a doctoral student in the concentration of Epidemiology & Biostatistics at Georgia State University. She is a Second Century Initiative Fellow (2CI) under the big data cluster. Prior to embarking on the doctoral journey, Amna completed her Bachelors in Dental Surgery from Pakistan in 2013 and her Master’s in Public Health from Georgia State University in 2017.
Her research interests include mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, exploring quantitative methods for analyzing disease outbreaks to better understand and predict the ongoing and upcoming infectious disease epidemics.
Contact: atariq1@student.gsu.edu
Resources
BMC Medicine: A Novel Sub-epidemic Modeling Framework for Short-term Forecasting Epidemic Waves
Texts in Applied Mathematics: Quantitative Methods for Investigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks
Vol 70. Springer Nature. 2019
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030219222