Featuring a single forecast for the trajectory of the entire United States and weekly forecasts of state level hotspots in the United States, as well as archived cases and deaths of COVID-19, the novel coronavirus. The forecasts based on deaths provides additional information to compare the forecasts based on global cases. Researchers in the School of Public Health have found forecasts based on deaths are less affected by temporal variations in testing rates.
Forecasts are updated every Tuesday by 9 p.m. ET. Please contact gchowell@gsu.edu for more information.
Click on the plus (+) symbol to open the section and view the forecast.
UNITED STATES
The Sub-epidemic Model – Cases – Entire US Trajectory captures spatial heterogeneity across the country.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Cases – US Hotspot State Level Forecasts captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations.
Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
ARCHIVED FORECASTS AND FIGURES
The Generalized Logistic Growth Model (GLM) – United States forecasts are simple models that allow for a range of early growth dynamics and, with sufficient data, can help infer the size of the outbreak. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Cases – Daily State Level Forecasts captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – United States captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – United States captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported deaths to forecast future trends in reported deaths.
SCHOLARLY/ACADEMIC RESOURCES
Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China, January–February, 2020
Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries
Forecasting the impact of coronavirus disease during delivery hospitalization: an aid for resources utilization
A dynamic modeling tool for illustrating the impact of population-wide interventions on the healthcare demand from COVID19
English version: A dynamic modeling tool for illustrating the impact of population-wide interventions on the healthcare demand from COVID19
Spanish version: A dynamic modeling tool for illustrating the impact of population-wide interventions on the healthcare demand from COVID19
MEDIA/NEWS REPORTS
The New York Times: Can the N.F.L. really return to normal this fall?
BuzzFeed News: Thinking about expanding your quarantine circle? Here’s what public health experts say
Harvard Business Review: A plan to safely reopen the U.S. despite inadequate testing
BBC: Horizon’s Coronavirus Special, Part 2; segment starts at 9:27 and ends at 10:40
Georgia State News: A Perfect Storm: Q&A with Dr. Gerardo Chowell
Politico: Trump’s plans to reopen the country face major obstacles
CBS46 Atlanta: Digital misinformation on coronavirus creating dangerous situation, researchers say
Georgia State Alumni Association: Tracking coronavirus and how we move forward
NBC News: Official coronavirus death tolls are only an estimate, and that is a problem
Inverse: Why scientists say we may be “intermittent social distancing” until 2022
WSB-TV Atlanta: Social media being used as a tool to track coronavirus
NBC News: In Georgia and elsewhere in South, governors begin lifting coronavirus
NPR: Why ‘death rates’ from coronavirus can be deceiving
CBS46 Atlanta: Medical model projects 82,000 coronavirus deaths by August
Georgia State News: Scientists are joining the race to unravel how the new coronavirus operates – and find effective treatments
The New York Times: Infected but feeling fine – the unwitting coronavirus spreaders
The New York Times: Can the Olympics take place in July (this July)?
Daily Mail (UK): Cuomo is to launch an anti-body test to identify who has recovered from coronavirus
Nature: Covert coronavirus infections could be seeding new outbreaks
The Hill: SARS-CoV-2 in people and the environment: What’s coming?
BuzzFeed News: What is social distancing? How staying away from others can help stop the coronavirus spread
Los Angeles Times: True number of U.S. coronavirus cases is far above official tally, scientists say
Forbes: What percentage have COVID-19 coronavirus but do not know it
The Washington Post: Nigeria’s experience containing Ebola may help with coronavirus response, expert says
The Washington Post: El Salvador’s president says the country has no coronavirus cases, declares national quarantine
Georgia State: Panther Report News
STAT: Once widely criticized, the Wuhan quarantine bought the world time to prepare for COVID-19
Al Jazeera: ‘Diseases know no borders’: Cooperation key in COVID-19 response
Nature: What the cruise-ship outbreaks reveal about COVID-19
Univision News: How to protect yourself from the coronavirus living with others and in a single space
BuzzFeed News: Silent carriers are helping spread the coronavirus. Here’s what we know about them.
Medical News Today: COVID-19 – Social distancing, drugs trials offer hope
Daily Mail (UK): New York scientists develop first US blood test that can detect who has already had coronavirus and is immune
World Economic Forum: People with mild or no symptoms could be spreading COVID-19
The Dallas Morning News: Collin County cities intend to issue shelter-in-place orders, McKinney mayor says
Medical News Today: Why social distancing is key in containing the new coronavirus
Univision News: President Trump: gatherings should be limited to 10 people
Nettavisen (Norway): Professor of epidemiology: the pandemic can last one to two years
Proceso Magazine (Mexico): The brutal Chinese recipe against the coronavirus
El País (Mexico): The pandemic that everyone knew was coming and no one knew how to stop
AF Medios (Mexico): Universities develop self-diagnosis app for COVID-19
Complex: Tracking when the NFL, NBA, MLB, and more sports will return to action
BuzzFeed News: Here’s what public health experts think our pandemic summer will look like
The Wall Street Journal: How far can the coronavirus travel in the air?
BuzzFeed News: Here’s what public health experts have to say about using public restrooms during the coronavirus pandemic
The Union Journal: Mexico decides to reopen municipalities without diagnostic tests
El País (Mexico): We stayed home . . . now what?
Arthur M. Blank Family Foundation: Preparing to open during the pandemic
BuzzFeed News: The CDC released new death rate estimates for the coronavirus. Many scientists say they’re too low.
IMER Noticias (Mexico): Key factors for COVID-19 containment in some countries
The Wall Street Journal: New coronavirus outbreak in China prompts limited lockdown
CNN: A month after reopening, Georgia coronavirus cases continue slow and steady
STAT: How the world can avoid screwing up the response to COVID-19 again
Publimetro (Mexico): COVID-19 mortality in children in Mexico is three times higher than in the United States
Los Angeles Times: As America reopens, here’s how to assess the risk of shopping and dining out
Georgia State News: Stories in the time of coronavirus
Los Angeles Times: As coronavirus cases pass 2 million, what’s the impact of reopening?
Time: COVID-19 positivity rates appear to be spiking in many states that reopened bars
BuzzFeed News: The Black Lives Matter protests have taught us more about the coronavirus
Los Angeles Times: The more we stay home, the less the coronavirus spreads. Here’s the evidence
BuzzFeed News: Is It Safe To Get Together With Loved Ones This Thanksgiving? We Asked 7 Experts
Georgia State News: Using Social Media to Map Disease
Toronto Star: Everything you wish you knew about the latest COVID-19 science
The New York Times: N.F.L.’s Coronavirus Cases Rise With New Positive Tests
FEATURED RESEARCHERS
Dr. Gerardo Chowell
Dr. Gerardo Chowell is professor of mathematical epidemiology in the Department of Population Health Sciences. He also holds an external affiliation as a Senior Research Fellow at the Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies at the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health.
Before joining Georgia State University’s School of Public Health, Dr. Chowell was an associate professor in the School of Human Evolution and Social Change at Arizona State University.
Learn more about Dr. Gerardo Chowell
Contact: gchowell@gsu.edu
Sushma Dahal
Sushma Dahal is a doctoral student and graduate research assistant in the Department of Population Health Sciences. She is a Second Century Initiative (2CI) Fellow under the big data cluster. Sushma completed her Master of Public Health under Fulbright Foreign Student Scholarship Program from Georgia State University in 2017. Her research interests include quantitative analysis and modeling of infectious diseases.
Contact: sdahal2@gsu.edu
Amna Tariq
Amna Tariq is a doctoral student and graduate research assistant in the Department of Population Health Sciences. She is a Second Century Initiative (2CI) Fellow under the big data cluster. Prior to embarking on the doctoral journey, Amna completed a Bachelors in Dental Surgery (Pakistan) in 2013 and a Masters of Public Health from Georgia State University in 2017.
Her research interests include mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and exploring quantitative methods for analyzing disease outbreaks to better understand and predict the ongoing and upcoming infectious disease epidemics.
Contact: atariq1@student.gsu.edu