Featuring a single forecast for the trajectory of the entire United States and weekly forecasts of state level hotspots in the United States, as well as archived global cases and deaths of COVID-19, the novel coronavirus. The forecasts based on deaths provides additional information to compare the forecasts based on global cases. Researchers in the School of Public Health have found forecasts based on deaths are less affected by temporal variations in testing rates.
Forecasts are updated every Tuesday by 9 p.m. ET. Please contact gchowell@gsu.edu for more information.
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UNITED STATES
The Sub-epidemic Model – Cases – Entire US Trajectory captures spatial heterogeneity across the country.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Cases – US Hotspot State Level Forecasts captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations.
Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
Scroll right to review the most recent forecasts in alphabetical order by state.
ARCHIVED FORECASTS AND FIGURES
The Sub-epidemic Model – Canada captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Canada captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported deaths to forecast future trends in reported deaths.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Germany captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Germany captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported deaths to forecast future trends in reported deaths.
The Sub-epidemic Model – The Netherlands captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – The Netherlands captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported deaths to forecast future trends in reported deaths.
The Sub-epidemic Model – United Kingdom captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – United Kingdom captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported deaths to forecast future trends in reported deaths.
The Sub-epidemic Model – France captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – France captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported deaths to forecast future trends in reported deaths.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Italy captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Italy captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported deaths to forecast future trends in reported deaths.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Spain captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported cases to forecast future trends in reported cases.
The Sub-epidemic Model – Spain captures a diversity of epidemic trajectories including stable incidence patterns with sustained or damped oscillations. Researchers in the School of Public Health fit the model to cumulative reported deaths to forecast future trends in reported deaths.
